Leo's TROPICAL SEASON THESIS CURRENT

My credits are forty one years experience in Meteorology, Oceanography, Tropical Support and includes twenty five years in Naval Aviation Forecasting & Meteorology. The acute knowledge acquired in understanding weather patterns, satellite analysis and various models is essential prior forecasting or hypothetically reasoning out Tropical Cyclone early development and movement! The required special technics in deciphering meteorological analysis, upper level winds, geographical location and the products of numerous platforms is my speciality! The identification of proper tools of this trade is unlike no other Profession! However I will always provide you my customers a professional and accurate forecast on my Pro Tropical WEB Site! K.I.S.S. "Keep It Simple Stupid" so not to lose you or bore you in the above knowledge that 99 percent of people have no care in learning from me or any Professional Forecaster! Most of you wing your own weather by thinking looking at a simple sat imagery and believing it is no Threat! Deadly mistake for people not evacuating due to ignorance in all geographical areas for Tropical Threat. I will provide a personal researched Tropical Storm Track map for US Coastal Threats in Gulf of Mexico States and Atlantic Seaboard States! If there is a serious U.S. landfall threat it will be provided by me! Otherwise, it is a waiste of my time and energy! NHC is your main site for those not affecting my region area of concern! I have a strong acumen knowledge of the following; mid latitude forecasting, semi-permanent pressure systems, surface meso-scale features, upper level dynamics, climatological and monsoonal patterns to derive an accurate Tropical Forecast! My personal Forecast Tracks are provided on my Hurricane Page for FREE during Tropical Cyclone Seasons! The analyze of upper level atmospheric patterns and ocean generated water circulations abd temperatures are ongoing! I review all the climo data along with forecasted spagetti model products, to tune my forecast if the actual movement for either short or long range models represent actual conditions! The research of yearly trends in datum for understanding El Nino and La Nina phenomena and ENSO disposition is important in weather history for trajectory and frequency of cyclones development and movements! The analysis and interpreting Ocean temperatures and Ocean Currents are essential in a Tropical Prognostic Forecast. The upper level dynamics accuring at the time of each cyclone as well! My education, experience skill(s), and knowledge acquires years of developing this acumen aptitude in Tropical Forecasting! Leo's Tropical Cyclones Thesis for Season 2024: Areas include Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Bay Of Campeche! No Scientist, Climatologist or Meteorologist or NHC Globalist Leader can be so accurate to forecast the real numbers and or the actual destructive weather prior any Tropical Cyclone Season! Only God! A Long Range Prognostic is just a wild shot in the dark! However El NINO is slowly weakening but still strong over the Eastern Pacific Ocean for early June, July and maybe potentially weakens by Late August 2024! This is bad news for Tropical Formation in Aug-Nov 2024! ENSO shows weaker or lessen in sea surface temperatures in which weakens the Pacific High Pressure of Western Central America by late August 2024. Expect intense Severe Weather and heavier precipitation to develop in Southern Texas to Coastal Central and Southern Florida for early part of Hurricane Season. Monsoonal patterns with strong Tropical Jetstream at 20,000 ft and above will produce fast moving waves and push through the South and Southeastern USA this June-Aug 2024. The (400mb) 20,000 feet mid level wind shear for early part of Tropical Season for Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions through August 2024. I don't expect much for Tropical Development in June-July for the Gulf States or Coastal Atlantic States! However we should see an an increase in weaker Tropical Storms by August but not any major heavy wind damage threats FL-AL-MS-LA and TX through late August 2023. This September expect a significant increase in fast developing Tropical Cyclones with heavy threat along the whole entire Gulf Coast Region and Florida coast Peninsula will be our Seasonal Threats! October into November 2024 will show the most prominent development of Threats to increase for impact Gulf of Mexico States and U.S. East Coast! I forecast a significant weakening of the upper level wind shear with intensifying of the Bermuda High! The extension of its Ridge will extend deeper Westward into Eastern and Southeastern States! This along with weakening of El Nino in late August 2024 will increase heavier precipitation pattertns with added tropical waves, tropical storms with increase to potential heavy flooding alonmg the Southern and Southeastern Gulf and Atlantic Seaboard coastlines! Be prepared for Stronger and Faster Moving Tropical Cyclones for September into late November 2024! This includes increased heavier precipitation and strong storm surges along U.S. Atlantic Coastal Seaboard Region for 2024! The Stronger Tropical Pattern will develop by September into Late October 2024 along the Mid-Atlantic Ocean and East Coast. Novemember should see a definite increase for Eastern Atlantic Seaboard to Maine! Expect an increase along Atlantic Seaboard for Cat 3 intensity. Expect more outcome in damages to be with Heavy Flooding for Eastern Atlantic coast due to numerous cyclones following this pattern for Season 2024.

A major importance of understanding an increase or decrease in Tropical Activity in areas along the US East Coast, and Gulf of Mexico is considerably dependent on previous years of El Nino and La Nina phenomena. However ENSO phenonema has now developed for sea water temperature redistribution in the Southern Pacific Ocean to change by late Summer 2024! Please click on Chris Farley animation below to reference this El Nino phenomenon!